What freight industry challenges could disrupt your peak season shipping?

As the holiday shipping season approaches, small and midsized businesses (SMBs) are preparing for one of the ficklest peak periods in recent memory. Unpredictable tariffs, rising operating costs and labor challenges have combined to create a volatile environment where even small disruptions in the supply chain can ripple into major delays and unexpected expenses.

During peak season, when demand surges and timelines are unforgiving, these challenges don't just create inefficiency — they can directly erode margins and damage customer relationships.

Here's a closer look at the four freight industry challenges most likely to disrupt your peak season. We also take a look at what they mean for SMB shipping operations and how you can navigate them with the help of a third-party logistics (3PL) provider!

1. Why the Freight Recession Will Again Impact Peak Season Shipping

The freight recession that began in 2022 continues to cast a shadow over the trucking industry — and it's not going away in time for the 2025 holidays. Demand has softened, leaving too many trucks chasing too few loads. While this overcapacity keeps spot rates subdued (around $1.95–$2.05 per mile in early 2025 on average), carriers have struggled recently with average operating costs of $2.26 per mile.

For SMB shippers, this dynamic cuts both ways. Lower rates offer short-term savings, but bankruptcies and consolidations among smaller carriers reduce options and flexibility this holiday season. However, during peak season shipping, capacity could tighten suddenly, driving up rates and limiting availability.

Why this hits SMBs hard in peak season

• Fewer carrier options. Bankruptcies and mergers shrink the pool of reliable partners, leaving SMBs with less flexibility.
• Volatile rates. Spot rates look low now, but sudden spikes can catch SMBs off guard during holiday surges.
• Capacity crunch risk. When demand rebounds, smaller shippers often struggle to secure space against larger competitors.

What SMB shippers can do

• Lock in contracts. Work with a 3PL to secure stable rates before volatility returns.
• Diversify carriers. Don't rely on one or two carriers— spread your shipments across a network.
• Plan ahead. Build lead time into shipping schedules to absorb disruptions.
• Watch the market. Monitor rate trends and tender rejections as early warning signs.

In short, the trucking recession may feel like a temporary benefit on the rate sheet, but it carries long-term risks. SMB shippers who plan ahead now are less likely to face capacity crunches or sticker shock when the market shifts or when peak season arrives for real.

2. How Shipping Tariffs Will Threaten SMBs This Peak Season

Tariffs don't just affect big importers. In fact, they act like a hidden tax on every U.S. business that relies on global suppliers. For SMB shippers, the stakes are higher: margins are thinner, flexibility is limited, and every unexpected cost can erode holiday shipping season profits.

A recent survey found that 67% of SMBs have been impacted by shipping tariffs in the past year, from higher material costs to delayed inventory. And with U.S. imports from China dropping 28% from June 2024 to June 2025 due to tariff hikes, many shippers are scrambling to rework sourcing strategies at the worst possible time — right before peak season.

Why SMBs feel the pinch most

• Margins under pressure. Larger shippers can absorb or negotiate around shipping tariffs, but SMBs often face full exposure to cost increases.
• Inventory risks. To avoid running out of stock, SMBs may be forced to order earlier or buy more, tying up precious working capital.
• Lead time uncertainty. Tariffs spark supplier renegotiations and re-routing, slowing down the supply chain when speed is most critical.

How SMB shippers can stay ahead

• Audit your imports. Identify tariff-sensitive products and explore alternate sourcing where possible.
• Plan ahead. Strategically secure appropriate buffer stock before the holiday rush to protect against sudden cost hikes or delays.
• Leverage 3PL insights. Logistics partners often have updates on shipping tariffs and routing strategies that individual SMBs can't easily access.

For SMBs heading into the holidays, tariffs aren't just a policy debate in Washington. They're a real-world cost driver that can upend shipping budgets and delivery schedules if not managed proactively.

3. How Logistics Labor Shortages Are Tying Up Your Peak Season Shipping

Even if demand is picking up this time of year, many shippers are discovering that having freight ready isn't enough — you also need drivers and labor to move it. In 2025, the U.S. trucking industry faces a shortfall of 80,000+ drivers, a gap driven by retirements and a lack of new workers joining the field, among other factors. So, while capacity may be available now, once Peak Season hits, driver shortages may exacerbate the capacity crunch.

Why this hits SMBs hard in peak season

• Capacity shrinks. With fewer drivers, carriers take the best paying or easiest loads first, leaving SMBs with tough competition.
• Labor costs rise. Carriers boost wages and bonuses, pushing up cost per mile and passing the expense to shippers.
• Schedules slip. Shortages cause pickup delays, inconsistent deliveries and missed customer commitments.

What SMB shippers can do

• Book early. Lock in carriers now to secure key lanes before demand spikes.
• Budget smart. Factor in higher labor costs and build extra time into schedules.
• Stay flexible. Work with multiple carriers so you're not left stranded.
• Leverage a 3PL. These providers often have a larger carrier network and strategies that improve reliability.

Labor shortages may not grab headlines like tariffs or freight theft, but for SMB shippers they create costly ripple effects. A top-notch 3PL can secure reliable carriers, build flexibility into your strategy and keep peak season freight moving on schedule.

4. How Smarter Cargo Thieves Raise the Stakes for SMBs This Peak Season

Cargo theft isn't just rising — it's evolving. Criminals now use fake documents, stolen identities and even AI-driven scams to hijack freight before it hits the road. For SMBs heading into the holidays, this is one of the most disruptive risks.

According to one report, cargo theft was up 27% in 2024 and is predicted to rise another 22% by the end of 2025. Electronics, food and beverage shipments are often the products that top the freight industry list of most stolen goods. The problem is especially severe in freight-dense states like California, Texas and other major hubs.

Why this hits SMBs hard in peak season

• Holiday inventory draws thieves. High-value goods like consumer electronics are prime targets.
• Limited safeguards. SMBs often lack the layered security larger enterprises can afford.
• Tight timelines. Rushed schedules make it harder to vet carriers and protect freight.

How SMB shippers can reduce exposure

• Rely on vetted carriers. Avoid unknown or lowest-bid options.
• Tighten protocols. Enforce ID checks and secure pickup procedures.
• Use tracking tools. GPS alerts and 3PL visibility platforms flag unusual activity.
• Carry insurance. Even with safeguards, coverage can protect against loss.

For SMBs, cargo theft isn't just a crime problem. It's a peak season survival issue. Planning ahead and tightening controls now can keep shipments safe when it matters most.

How can SMB shippers manage freight industry volatility?

So, what's an SMB to do with all these disruptions in the supply chain — from the lingering freight recession to tariffs, labor shortages and cargo theft? The most effective strategies, aside from what we have already mentioned, come down to three points:

• Stay informed. Track policy updates, economic shifts and shipping trends that affect the freight industry. This helps you anticipate rate swings, plan inventory purchases and take steps to protect high-value loads.
• Stay flexible. Don't depend on just one or two carriers. As carriers exit the market and demand spikes strain capacity, SMBs need a broad, reliable carrier network to protect shipping options.
• Don't go it alone. Partnering with a third-party logistics (3PL) provider gives SMB shippers broader capacity, smarter routing and stronger safeguards. A 3PL can audit your operations for vulnerabilities, provide cargo theft prevention tips and offset tariffs by negotiating better rates or identifying more efficient shipping routes.

Your Peak Season Partner: Learn How Unishippers Supports SMB Shippers

Preparing for peak season shipping takes planning and foresight. By anticipating demand, choosing the right freight shipping solutions, managing inventory and staying ahead of potential delays, SMBs can keep shipments on track during the busiest time of year. A 3PL like Unishippers can help!

For more peak season support, explore our Holiday Shipping Hub. It's packed with tips, tools and resources designed to help SMBs navigate shipping challenges with confidence.

If you're ready for one-on-one guidance, connect with a Unishippers expert today for a free consultation!